The Forex Profiteer: Daily Forex Outlook

Friday, August 18, 2006

Daily Forex Outlook - 18th Aug 06

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) strengthened against the majors in the overnight forex trading session after weakening during European trading. Initial jobless claims came in at 312k compared to a 315k estimate. Leading indicators also disappointed coming in at -0.1 compared to a 0.1 forecast. In other markets, the Dow Jones index rose a modest 8pts while the NASDAQ was also up 8pts. Crude oil fell as supply concerns were eased in the US. Oil fell by US$1.83 a barrel to US$70.06. Looking ahead The University of Michigan sentiment is out today.
The Euro (EUR) traded within a low of 1.2815 and a high of 1.2885, before closing at 1.2828 in the New York session. On the data front, Eurozone CPI disappointed coming in at -0.3% for July from an expected -0.2%. Industrial production came in at -0.1% right on expectations. Looking ahead, the Eurozone trade balance is due out today.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) traded within a low of 115.20 and a high of 116.15 versus the dollar, before closing at 115.98 in the New York session.

The Sterling (GBP) traded within a low of 1.8824 and a high of 1.9006, before closing at 1.8857 in the New York session. On the data front, retail sales was worse than expected for July coming in at -0.3% from an estimated 0.2%.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) traded within a low of 0.7602 and a high of 0.7664, before closing at 0.7610 in the New York session.

Gold (XAU) fell by US$13.70 to US$614.20 an ounce as investors sold out after gold could not break resistance at US$633, and the continuing stability in the Middle East.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Euro 1.2825

Initial support at 1.2768 (Aug 16 low) followed by 1.2695 (Aug 15 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.2913 (Aug 10 corrective high) followed by 1.2935 (Jun 6 high).

Yen 115.95

Initial support is located at 115.04 (61.8% retracement of the 113.97 to 116.76 advance) followed by 114.63 (76.4% retracement of the 113.97 to 116.76 advance). Initial resistance is now at 115.90 (Aug 17 high) followed by 116.39 (Aug 16 low).

Pound 1.8845

Initial support at 1.888 (Aug 16 low) followed by 1.8841 (Aug 14 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.9026 (Aug 16 high) followed by 1.9146 (Aug 8 high).

Australian Dollar 0.7615

Initial support at 0.7622 (Aug 17 low) followed by 0.7565 (Aug 9 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.7717 (Aug 10 high) followed by 0.7727 (May 17 corrective high).

Gold 615

Initial support at 602.57 (Jul 24 low) followed by 577.1 (Jun 28 low). Initial resistance is now at 633.1 (Aug 14 high) followed by 645 (Aug 11 high).

Easy Forex
P.O. Box 53742. Limassol 3317
http://www.easy-forex.com
info@easy-forex.com